地球系统动力学模式和模拟研究的进展   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

曾庆存  林朝晖 《地球科学进展》2010,25(1):1-6

概述地球系统动力学模式的由来及国内外目前的研究和模拟进展。地球系统动力学模式是描述全球气候以及生态和环境系统的整体耦合演变的数学表达。利用他作大规模数值模拟,以便认识和预测全球和区域的气候和生态环境变化,有效应对防灾减灾和规划可持续发展等。目前国内外尚未完全研制出可供实用的地球系统模式,还须二三年时间。  相似文献   

露天矿排土场高边坡动力稳定性研究     

刘寒鹏 《地质与勘探》2010,46(4)

露天矿生产采用爆破手段,除采矿形成边坡外,废矿堆积也常常形成排土场高边坡,现场实测露天矿排土场在生产爆破作用下的振动速度,将实测加速度数据推导得到的水平加速度值,线性插值到每一个土条中,利用等效静力法对边坡在爆破动力作用下的稳定性进行了计算及评价,与传统等效静力法相比,此方法更接近实际振动加速度分布情况。同时,采用模态叠加法,通过有限元动力响应分析的手段,对露天矿排土场高边坡表面不同部位土体位移分布规律进行了分析,最终得到研究边坡在生产爆破动荷载作用下不会产生整体滑移,但在坡面顶部表层或浅层会产生一定深度的拉张裂缝,在重力和爆破动力的作用下裂缝逐渐加深,到一定深度时,表层矿渣会顺坡滑下产生表面滑塌型破坏的结论。  相似文献   

基于3维GIS的热带气旋路径动态演化模拟方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘少军  张京红  李天富  陈汇林  田光辉  蔡大鑫  黄秋如 《地理信息世界》2006,4(4):74-76,80

我国是世界上受热带气旋影响最为严重的国家之一,因此研究其机理演变规律将更有利于指导做好防灾减灾工作。本文利用GIS的显示功能,重建和再现热带气旋的登陆路径全过程,在空间格局上,进行时间维的动态演化模拟,为更好地研究热带气旋的演化机理提供一种实用的分析手段。结果表明,该方法对在时空上了解和认识气旋登陆演化全过程的研究具有一定意义。  相似文献   

Recent Near-surface Temperature Trends in the Antarctic Peninsula from Observed,Reanalysis and Regional Climate Model Data     

Deniz BOZKURT  David HBROMWICH  Jorge CARRASCO  Keith MHINES  Juan Carlos MAUREIRA  and Roberto RONDANELLI 《大气科学进展》2020,37(5):477-493

This study investigates the recent near-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Peninsula.We make use of available surface observations,ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim,as well as numerical simulations,allowing us to contrast different data sources.We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km(PWRF-45)and 15 km(PWRF-15)spatial resolutions for the period 1991?2015.In addition,we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain(~50 km)for further comparisons.Results show that there is a marked windward warming trend except during summer.This windward warming trend is particularly notable in the autumn season and likely to be associated with the recent deepening of the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea low and warm advection towards the Antarctic Peninsula.On the other hand,an overall summer cooling is characterized by the strengthening of the Weddell Sea low as well as an anticyclonic trend over the Amundsen Sea accompanied by northward winds.The persistent cooling trend observed at the Larsen Ice Shelf station is not captured by ERA-Interim,whereas hindcast simulations indicate that there is a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling.Furthermore,larger temporal correlations and lower differences exhibited by PWRF-15 illustrate the existence of the added value in the higher spatial resolution simulation.  相似文献   

Preliminary Studies on Predicting the Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature through Combined Statistical Methods and Dynamic ENSO Prediction          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Li-Wei  ZHENG Fei  ZHU Jiang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(1):52-59

The sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean affects the regional climate over the Asian continent mostly through a modulation of the monsoon system.It is still difficult to provide an a priori indication of the seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean.It is widely recognized that the warm and cold events of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly linked to those of the equatorial eastern Pacific.In this study,a statistical prediction model has been developed to predict the monthly SST over the tropical Indian Ocean.This model is a linear regression model based on the lag relationship between the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Ni o3.4(5°S-5°N,170°W-120°W) SST Index.The predictor(i.e.,Ni o3.4 SST Index) has been operationally predicted by a large size ensemble El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forecast system with coupled data assimilation(Leefs_CDA),which achieves a high predictive skill of up to a 24-month lead time for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST.As a result,the prediction skill of the present statistical model over the tropical Indian Ocean is better than that of persistence prediction for January 1982 through December 2009.  相似文献   

Simulation and Projection of Changes in Rainy Season Precipitation over China Using the WRF Model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

WANG Shuzhou  YU Entao 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2013,27(4):577-584

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-2000, and to investigate potential future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981-2000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981-2000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041-2060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century.  相似文献   

Numerical simulations of the Hyades dynamics and the nature of the moving Hyades cluster     

Ya. O. Chumak  A. S. Rastorguev  S. J. Aarseth 《Astronomy Letters》2005,31(5):308-314

We present our numerical simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Hyades open cluster. The simulations were performed usinga modified NBODY6 algorithm that included tidal forces and a realistic orbit of the cluster in a gravitational field described by the Miyamoto-Nagai potential. Our goal was to study the nature of movingclu sters. We show that the stars that were earlier cluster members could be later identified within a sphere of 50 pc in diameter around the Sun. The number of such stars for the chosen initial mass and virial radius of the cluster does not exceed ten. The maximum space velocity of these stars relative to the core of the current cluster does not exceed 3 km s^?1. Our numerical simulations confirm the assumption that some of the moving clusters near the Sun could consist of stars that have escaped from open clusters in the course of their dynamical evolution.  相似文献   

Dynamical Evolution of Barred Galaxies     

E. Athanassoula 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2005,91(1-2):9-31

Angular momentum redistribution within barred galaxies drives their dynamical evolution. Angular momentum is emitted mainly by near-resonant material in the bar region and absorbed by resonant material mainly in the outer disc and in the halo. This exchange determines the strength of the bar, the decrease of its pattern speed, as well as its morphology. If the galaxy has also a gaseous component and/or a companion or satellite, then these also take part in the angular momentum exchange. During the evolution a bar structure forms in the inner parts of the halo as well. This bar is shorter and fatter than the disc bar and stays so all through the simulation, although its length grows considerably with time. Viewed edge-on, the bar in the disc component acquires a boxy or peanut shape. I describe the families of periodic orbits that explain such structures and review the observations showing that boxy/peanut ‘bulges’ are in fact just bars seen edge-on.  相似文献   

A numerical solution of the dynamical instability of a thin accretion torus     

Liu Ren-jie  Wang De-yu 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》1995,19(4):507-512

We consider the non-axisymmetric, dynamical instability of a thin accretion torus with a non-zero shift of corotation radius. By numerical method we evaluated the wave number dependence of the linear rate of growth of instability and the co-rotation shift. The rate of growth is only slightly affected by the non-zero co-rotation shift, while the dispersion relation in the case of a shift is the same as that of the linear KdV equation. This shows that the “planet-like” solution found in numerical simulations of thin tori is very probably analogous to the soliton solution of the KdV equation.  相似文献   

The general solution of the HENON–HEILES problem     

K.?E.?PapadakisEmail author  C.?L.?Goudas  G.?A.?Katsiaris 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,295(3):375-396

The general solution of the Henon–Heiles system is approximated inside a domain of the (x, C) of initial conditions (C is the energy constant). The method applied is that described by Poincaré as ‘the only “crack” permitting penetration into the non-integrable problems’ and involves calculation of a dense set of families of periodic solutions that covers the solution space of the problem. In the case of the Henon–Heiles potential we calculated the families of periodic solutions that re-enter after 1–108 oscillations. The density of the set of such families is defined by a pre-assigned parameter ε (Poincaré parameter), which ascertains that at least one periodic solution is computed and available within a distance ε from any point of the domain (x, C) for which the approximate general solution computed. The approximate general solution presented here corresponds to ε = 0.07. The same solution is further improved by “zooming” into four square sub-domain of (x, C), i.e. by computing sufficient number of families that reduce the density parameter to ε = 0.003. Further zooming to reduce the density parameter, say to ε = 10⁻⁶, or even smaller, although easily performable in both areas occupied by stable as well as unstable solutions, was found unnecessary. The stability of all members of each and all families computed was calculated and presented in this paper for both the large solution domain and for the sub-domains. The correspondence between areas of the approximate general solution occupied by stable periodic solutions and Poincaré sections with well-aligned section points and also correspondence between areas occupied by unstable solutions and Poincaré sections with randomly scattered section points is shown by calculating such sections. All calculations were performed using the Runge-Kutta (R-K) 8th order direct integration method and the large output received, consisting of many thousands of families is saved as “Atlas of the General Solution of the Henon–Heiles Problem,” including their stability and is available at request. It is concluded that approximation of the general solution of this system is straightforward and that the chaotic character of its Poincaré sections imposes no limitations or difficulties.  相似文献